Home. COVID-19 Tracking Spreadsheets Current Tracking Spreadsheet 8.28.21 General Adult Services Forms Special Assistance In Home Case Management Manual 2022 Social Services Institute Resources Child Development and Early Education Health Service Regulation To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. These documents include a fact sheet that has background information on all programs, as well as separate facts sheets . After enabling macros, click the Start button on the cover page to start navigating the tool. We create short videos, and clear examples of formulas, functions, pivot tables, conditional formatting, and charts. & Pascual, M. D R A F T quantifying asymptomatic infection and transmission of COVID-19 in New York City using observed cases, serology and testing capacity. In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles 5, 100111 (2020). This simple plotting strategy is highly useful for analyzing the local rate of progression of the pandemic. Daily change by region and continent. Positive RT-PCR test results in patients recovered from COVID-19. A technical error with an Excel spreadsheet is believed to have caused 16,000 cases of coronavirus to be missed from national tallies, causing a "shambolic" delay to tracing efforts. 156, 119 (2020). Stat. We showed that the model can be adapted to closely follow the evolution of COVID-19 in densely populated urban areas by simply adjusting parameters related to demographic characteristics (i.e., total population) and aggressiveness of the response from a society/government to epidemics (i.e., social distancing and testing intensity). CDC has updated select ways to operate healthcare systems effectively in response to COVID-19 vaccination. Transport. Phys. The daily and weekly data are available as downloadable files in the following formats: XLSX, CSV, JSON and XML. ISSN 2045-2322 (online). In both tools you can click the yellow information buttons on each page to see definitions and explanations. One important attribute of this model is that it is amenable to implementation in Excel. Bi, Q. et al. Progression of the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Korea. (C) Model prediction (yellow) and actual number of new cases of COVID-19 per day (as reported by the NYC authorities; blue bars; https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page) during the period from March 1 to June30, 2020. 8, 420422 (2020). HIGHLIGHTS Four new Member States (Algeria, Austria, Croatia, and Switzerland) reported cases of COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. Moreover, the democratization of the modeling of complex epidemic events will empower citizens, enabling them to forecast, decide, and evaluate. Condens. Therefore, in our formulation, the overall rate of retrieval (dR/dt) has two distinct contributions, each one associated with different terms on the right-hand side of Eq. In our experience, four to five reliable data points are needed for a good fit. Dev. This mortality percentage (case fatality rate) lies within the range reported in recent literature for COVID-1914,38,39,40. South Korea implemented an open public testing program early in February and made it available even to asymptomatic people49,50. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-83697-w, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-83697-w. These cookies perform functions like remembering presentation options or choices and, in some cases, delivery of web content that based on self-identified area of interests. Over 50 Examples of COVID-19 Scams and How to Avoid Them. 11, 761784 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0011601. In turn, this implies a lower demand for hospital beds per day during the epidemics and may mark the difference between a manageable crisis and a public health catastrophe9, 47. Therefore, ranges of doubling times between 1.07 and 5.77days are observed just among these three regional cases. 115, 700721 (1927). 5, 256263 (2020). We have implemented this solution in an Excel spreadsheet (Supplemental File F1). Google Sheets can both feel and load slower as you fill more and more cells and sheets . By the second week of March, stringent measures of social distancing were imposed in NYC46. Jung, S. et al. We recommend downloading and saving the downloaded spreadsheet tool (whichever you have chosen) to your computer, then opening the spreadsheet from your computer. Find COVID-19 Workplace Safety Guidance. Explore the data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths for all . S1). JAMA https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.2565 (2020). Agents 55, 105924 (2020). Easily create spreadsheets from templates or on your own and use modern formulas to perform calculations. These cookies may also be used for advertising purposes by these third parties. Biswas, M. H. A., Paiva, L. T. & De Pinho, M. A seir model for control of infectious diseases with constraints. Wang, K. et al. A system of four colors (i.e., red, orange, yellow, and green) was established by the government officials to allow continuous communication of the status of the pandemic in the different regions across Mexico. MMA, EGG, and GTdS acknowledge the funding received from CONACyT (Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologa, Mxico) and Tecnologico de Monterrey. Each example has a link, a screenshot to show what the data looks like in Excel after being imported, and an Excel workbook. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/. If the request is successful, it will be stored as a giant python string. Power BI is able to get data from many sources from flat files, databases, Azure, online services and many others. You will be subject to the destination website's privacy policy when you follow the link. More information is available, Travel requirements to enter the United States are changing, starting November 8, 2021. Within days of launch, the Hub had garnered thousands of visits. Save time with intelligence-enhanced tools for experts and beginners. NYT data. Here, a is the fraction of asymptomatic subjects among the infected population, (1a) is the fraction of infected individuals that exhibit symptoms, and m is the mortality rate expressed as a fraction of symptomatic individuals. Lancet Respir. In the demographic model, we have defined as a dimensionless social distancing parameter, while 1 is the remaining fraction of activity in a society after the application of social distancing measures that reduce the level of activity in an fraction. Int. COVIDTracer Advanced also allows a user to estimate age-stratified direct medical costs associated with COVID-19 hospitalizations, providing information on direct medical costs associated with interventions. Roosa, K. et al. Figure2B shows the natural log of the cumulative number of infections over time for the same set of countries. And it appears that Public Health England (PHE) was to blame,. ECDC: On Air - podcast on European epidemiology. In the toolbar, click on "Get Data" and in the . These adapted models (i.e., SEIR models) have been remarkably useful for describing epidemic events and have contributed enormously to our understanding of epidemic progression19, COVID-19 included20. The positioning and size of different bars indicates relationships between components. A SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic was declared by the World Health Organization in March 2020. Clinical parameters include an intrinsic infection rate constant (o) that is calculated from the initial stage of the pandemic in that particular region; the fraction of asymptomatic patients (a); the delay between the period of viral shedding by an infected patient (delay_r), the period from the onset of shedding to the result of first diagnosis and quarantine in the fraction of patients effectively diagnosed (delay_q); and the fraction of infected patients effectively diagnosed and retrieved from the population (). At this point, some territories in Latin America (i.e., Mxico) are just experiencing a second exponential phase of the COVID-19 pandemic at home and do not appear having yet implemented proper containment measures as rapidly as needed. We'll be updating and adding to our information. 1) states that the rate of accumulation of infected habitants (symptomatic and asymptomatic) in an urban area (assumed to be a closed system) is proportional to the number of infective subjects (XR) present in that population at a given point and the fraction of the population susceptible to infection ((PoX)/Po). Explore the data on confirmed COVID-19 cases for all countries. It includes the dimensions of agency, fund,. You can ignore the inputs and outputs associated with the estimates of potentials savings of direct medical costs due to any reduction in hospitalizations. Indeed, Mexico has been regarded as one of the countries that have conducted a low number of tests. By contrast, as of December 2020, the USA and South Korea had conducted 688 and 71.65 tests per 1000 inhabitants (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus)50. 382, 11771179 (2020). Pathological findings of COVID-19 associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome. In addition, two localities that experienced similar initial specific epidemic rates may exhibit dramatically different evolutions as a function of the initial response of government and society (Fig. Accessed 10 Sep 2020. Health 13, 14031409 (2020). Lancet Glob. To date, many papers have reported the use of mathematical models and simulators to evaluate the progression of COVID-19 in local or more global settings11,12,13,14. Int. 3A for NYC only considers the effect of social distancing. However, wide scale testing has not been considered as part of the official strategy to face COVID-19, and diagnostics have only been done upon request and mainly for symptomatic individuals. This is somewhat consistent with the information now available on the number of PCR tests conducted in the USA during March and April 2020. Google Scholar. *Microsoft Windows and Office are copyrighted products produced by Microsoft Corporation, WA. Mortality Risk of COVID-19Our World in Data. If you want to return to the default settings, click the Reset to Default Values button. This will allow the spreadsheet to open in Excel instead of in your web browser. Public health threats can affect clients and providers. In turn, this empowers officials, scientists, health care providers, and citizens. and JavaScript. N. Engl. Beware Coronavirus-Themed Malware Disguised as Excel Spreadsheets ADVERTISEMENT Microsoft Discovers Coronavirus-Themed Malware in Excel Sheets The hackers use a software called NetSupport. Health 8, e488e496 (2020). After the peak, the number of new cases per day remained nearly constant for months. He, J., Guo, Y., Mao, R. & Zhang, J. This contribution shows the prediction potential of an extremely simple simulation tool that can be used by practically any citizen with basic training in Excel. Predictions on the possible evolution of COVID-19 based on mathematical modeling could therefore represent important tools for designing and/or evaluating countermeasures13,15,16,17. Social distancing has a clear buffering effect on the epidemics, delaying the occurrence of the peak of infections and distributing the number of cases across a longer time span. https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.26326 (2020). (1) and (2) should be converted into their corresponding equations of differences: For all the simulation results presented here, we set t=1h=1/24day. Anderson, R. M., Heesterbeek, H., Klinkenberg, D. & Hollingsworth, T. D. How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?. The full functionality of both COVIDTracer and COVIDTracer Advanced are supported in the desktop version of Microsoft Office for Windows. An "IT failure" within Public Health England - reported to be a problem with an Excel spreadsheet reaching its maximum size - has been blamed by ministers for a delay in the reporting of 15,841 COVID-19 cases in England. The fraction of deceased patients (m) was calculated as m=0.023 of those infected 14days before. FEMA Rumor Control: A resource helping the public distinguish between rumors and facts regarding the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Coronavirus. 193, 792795 (2006). 9, 523 (2020). If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. MMA formulated the model and run the simulations. Indeed, we have been able to observe exemplary responses from some Asian countries (i.e., China5, South Korea6, and Singapore7), some highly aggressive responses in Europe (i.e., Germany and Switzerland8), and several delayed or not so effective responses from other regions (i.e., USA, England, Italy and Spain)9,10. J. Clin. & Lloyd-Smith, J. O. (1) and (2) is sufficient to describe the evolution of the number of asymptomatic individuals (A), symptomatic individuals (S), and deceased patients (D) through the specification of several constants and simple relations. Colors are also associated with the economic and recreational activities that are allowed and the level of social distancing enforced. Actual data points, as officially reported, are shown using black circles. Resources and Assistance. When you download and open COVIDTracer or COVIDTracer Advanced, all inputs are pre-populated with numbers and estimates based on the best available data, wherever possible (for instance, peer-reviewed studies, expert opinion, and pre-print manuscripts). We conducted a series of simulations by varying the values of =0.5 to fit the actual data of cumulative number of reported cases of COVID-19 and the number of new cases per day. This virus is a coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2. Coronavirus (COVID-19) data The latest data on the COVID-19 global outbreak. (3) to (5) (Supplemental File S1). If you do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and will not be able to monitor its performance. Leung, N. H. L., Xu, C., Ip, D. K. M. & Cowling, B. J. Similarly, asymptomatic patients are only removed from the pool of susceptible persons after full virus clearance. The straightforward implementation of the model in Excel (Supplemental File S1), using the set of parameters described before, allows the calculation of all populations (X, A, S, and D) every hour. Model formulation. Dis. MacIntyre, C. R. Global spread of COVID-19 and pandemic potential. Real-time estimation of the risk of death from novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection: Inference using exported cases. Deaths by region and continent. Learn Excel with high quality video training. The formulation of Eqs. Infect. This article explains how to build a singlequery in more detail. Please note that all data are provisional and subject to change. Note that the number of infective subjects is given by the difference between the accumulated number of infected subjects (X) and the number of retrieved subjects (R). Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. volume11, Articlenumber:4327 (2021) Two-year prospective study of the humoral immune response of patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome. The percentage of asymptomatic infections during pandemic Influenza A/H1N1/2009, based on epidemiology studies founded in serological analysis in a vast range of geographical settings, has been estimated between 65 and 85%31; up to 2040% of the population in urban areas (i.e., Monterrey in Mxico, and Pittsburgh in USA)32,33 exhibited specific antibodies against Influenza A/H1N1/2009regardless of experiencing symptoms, while the fraction of confirmed symptomatic infections was lower than less than 10%. PubMed Create a new Power BI workbook. This moderate gain of time provides additional leeway for planning interventions or allocating resources, with time being gold during pandemic events. Data is by country by day, and would be a good candidate for a Pivot Tableto provide totals. Further, we encourage you to change input values and explore the impact of various scenarios and assumptions (e.g., hours spent to initially interview a case). The Global COVID-19 tracker provided key metrics on where the pandemic was spreading, and impacts, including metrics on mortality and hospitalizations. By Whitney Tesi. Around 16,000. Use Google Sheets to create and edit online spreadsheets. The value of (XR), determinant of the progression of the infection among population, is shown as a red line. For example, a constant value of =0.25 means that social activities will be decreased by 25%. Health Epidemiol https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020011 (2020). COVIDTracer Spreadsheet CDC [Excel 5.7 MB], COVIDTracer Manual CDCpdf icon [1 MB, 51 pages], COVIDTracer Advanced Spreadsheet CDC [Excel 6 MB], COVIDTracer Advanced Manual CDC [1.6 MB, 55 pages], COVIDTracer Advanced DRAFT Report Template [165 KB, 8 Pages]. Kermack, W. & Mckendrick, A. G. A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. On Sunday, one of the United Kingdom 's public health agencies announced that 15,841 covid-19 cases had gone unreported due to a "technical issue" that occurred during "the data load . Source: EU Open Data Portal (https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/covid-19-coronavirus-data). Cookies used to enable you to share pages and content that you find interesting on CDC.gov through third party social networking and other websites. Temporal profiles of viral load in posterior oropharyngeal saliva samples and serum antibody responses during infection by SARS-CoV-2: An observational cohort study. JHU deaths data import. Most of the data is updated each weekday by 3 p . 35, 369379 (2019). Modeling the pandemic evolution in South Korea was more challenging than that in NYC. However, when the spreadsheet was converted into a PDF file, . 2/28/2023. This project depends on Power Query, so you'll need Excel 2013 or later on Windows. Data available to download below includes: number of people tested, and number positive and negative number of people who have died and tested positive Bianconi, A., Marcelli, A., Campi, G. & Perali, A. 3A. More than 60,000,000 positive cases of COVID-19 infection had been declared worldwide at that point, mainly in China, Italy, Iran, Spain, and other European countries. PubMed Central Estimated effectiveness of symptom and risk screening to prevent the spread of COVID-19. First, we illustrate the use of the model by recreating the pandemic progression in NYC, one of the most densely urban areas worldwide. Some functionality is not available in Microsoft Office for Macs or in the browser version of Office 365. This page provides examples of public Coronavirus data you can download to Excel with Power Query. Latest COVID-19 data Data Data on COVID-19 vaccination in the EU/EEA Data set - 10 Feb 2023 Data Data on SARS-CoV-2 variants in the EU/EEA Data set - 23 Feb 2023 Data Data on 14-day notification rate of new COVID-19 cases and deaths (modified from Ref.46): food (green circles), shopping (red circules), and city/outdoors (blue circles) (B) Model prediction of the total number of symptomatic patients through the months of March and May. Actual data points, as officially reported, are shown using black circles. Our public data API provides access to all of our data at a national and state level. Epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzhen China: Analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts. In addition to being user friendly, the model is also very flexible and enables the simulation of a wide variety of scenarios (i.e., COVID progression under different degrees of social distancing and testing effort) and enables rational planning (i.e., prediction of hospital bed occupancy, design of testing campaigns, and reinforcement/redirection of social distancing strategies). Trends Parasitol. A fraction of infected individuals () is effectively retrieved from the general population soon after the onset of symptoms or after a positive diagnosis. We used a set of differential equations, recent epidemiological data regarding the evolution of COVID-19 infection, and basic information on the characteristics of COVID-19 infection (i.e., time from infection to recovery, case mortality rate) to accurately recreate or predict the progression of the COVID-19 in three urban areas with different demographic characteristics (i.e., NYC in USA, Daegu in South Korea, and Mexico City in Mxico). Between September 25 and October 2, the United Kingdom. (1) (o) is an intrinsic rate of infection that is weighted by the effective fractional reduction of social distancing on the population density (1). In this scale of colors, red conveys the maximum level of alert. The comparison between the actual and the predicted scenarios in terms of new cases is presented in Fig. Feb 22; 125 people have been infected today in India. In addition, monitoring actual data, while comparing them with model predictions, enables real-time assessment of the effectiveness of the containment measures. We present a simple epidemiological model that is amenable to implementation in Excel spreadsheets and sufficiently accurate to reproduce observed data on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemics in different regions [i.e., New York City (NYC), South Korea, Mexico City]. This may lead to relevant inaccuracies, for example missing the occurrence of the epidemic plateau that has been frequently observed during COVID-19 progression in different regional settings21. ADS COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) is an illness caused by a virus. This example shows how you can connect directly to an Excel workbook. The availability of a simple model may be highly enabling for local governments, physicians, civil organizations, and citizens as they struggle in their endeavor to accurately forecast the progression of an epidemic and formulate a plan of action. Daily COVID-19 symptom screening checklist Page of Details Organisation Department Date Each day, before starting work/shift, use this checklist to screen for COVID-19 symptoms. to protect workers from COVID-19 If an employer has more than 10 employees, the plan must be written Employers may use this template to develop a COVID 19 plan for their workplace If employers choose to use this template, t here are 2 STEPS to complete: STEP 1: Determine if OSHA's COVID-19 Healthcare ETS applies to your workplace or p Weekly COVID-19 Deaths in Confirmed and Probable Cases 139. Historically, the use of models based on the definition of distinct and interacting compartments of susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals (SIR models) has been the preferred modeling strategy18. the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Actual data points, as officially reported, are shown using black circles. Use the Previous and Next buttons to navigate the slides or the slide controller buttons at the end to navigate through each slide. MMA, EGG, and GTdS collected and analyzed epidemiology data. Test and trace. Your email address is private and not shared. CSV XLSX COVID-19 Funds Transparency For instance, using this simple model, virtually any citizen could assess, in real time, the efficacy of the actions of her/his society in the face of an outbreak. Atmos. In December, Mxico, the USA, and South Korea, were performing 0.10, 3.96, and 0.839 tests per 1000 inhabitants daily, respectively49,50. Date published: April 14, 2022. Res. CAS Our simulations also suggest that the effect of testing intensification could have been key to extinguishing the pandemic wave in the case of Mexico City. Our selection of a=0.85 is based on a recent large-scale serological study conducted in New York City (NYC) to find anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among the population and a computational model27. Math. Relative change in visits to different type of places in NYC (modified from Ref.46) as reported by Bakker et al. Note also that is related to the doubling time (td), often reported in population and epidemiological studies, by the equation td=Ln 2/. One decade ago, during the influenza pandemics, mathematical modeling of epidemic events was the realm of privileged epidemiologists who had (a) a fast computer, (b) programing experience, and (c) and access to epidemiological data. Similarly, we multiplied by (1)=0.50 to simulate the effect of a scenario of social distancing that would diminish close social interaction by 50% (see Supplementary Fig. The first term accounts for the active rate of retrieving infected patients through the diagnosis and quarantine of subjects testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection. For instance, the first pandemic wave has not yet ended (Fig. Zimmer, S. M. et al. One person has died today in India from Coronavirus. The second equation (Eq. We have run different scenarios to validate the predictive capabilities of our epidemic model for COVID-19. Additional explanations are provided in the accompanying manuals, which can be downloaded using the links below. Health. Dis. In addition, SIR-related models do not explicitly account for the active infective role of asymptomatic individuals. Business Assistance. & Remuzzi, G. COVID-19 and Italy: What next?. MathSciNet The OSHA COVID-19 Healthcare Emergency Temporary Standard (ETS) requires employers to keep a COVID-19 Log if they have more than 10 employees on June 21, 2021 (the effective date of the ETS) (See 29 CFR 1910.502(q)). Simulation predictions are described by the yellow line. The COVID-19 evolution in Mexico City exhibits remarkable differences with respect to those observed in other countries. 4C). Lan, L. et al. In addition, the factor (PoX)/Po updates the susceptible population each time step by removing the infected population from the total population. Lancet https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30627-9 (2020). Both tools, as described earlier, allow you to estimate the potential effectiveness of each of three contact tracing strategies. Presumed asymptomatic carrier transmission of COVID-19. (D) Natural logarithm of the cumulative number of positive cases of COVID-19 infection in Italy (blue squares and diamonds) and South Korea (red circles and triangles). This is a simple SIR model, implemented in Excel (download from this link). Modelling the initial epidemic trends of COVID-19 in Italy, Spain, Germany, and France. Gostic, K., Gomez, A. C., Mummah, R. O., Kucharski, A. J. Sci Rep 11, 4327 (2021). All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. Summary. For purposes of entry into the United States, vaccines accepted will include FDA approved or authorized and WHO Emergency Use Listing vaccines. Coronavirus (COVID-19) TestingOur World in Data. bioRxiv. We provide data in both JSON and CSV format. (2020). Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine is a monovalent COVID-19 vaccine that is authorized for emergency use to prevent COVID-19 as a: Two-dose primary series for individuals 6 months of age and older. According to reports from Daily Mail, The Independent and Evening Standard, a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet containing laboratory results reached its maximum size, meaning that as many as 15,841 . For this term, the delay from the onset of virus shedding to positive diagnosis and quarantine (delay_q) is considered short (i.e., about 2 or 5days), to account for a reasonable time between the positive diagnosis and the action of quarantine. Xu, Z. et al. Simulation predictions are described by the yellow line. Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from February 5th to February 24th, 2020. arXiv preprint. Get the latest COVID-19 News. Lai, C. C., Shih, T. P., Ko, W. C., Tang, H. J. Eng. Share. TheCOVID Tracking Project provides a grade for each state. Demographic parameters include the population of the region (Po), the extent of social distancing (), and the fraction of infected individuals retrieved from the population due to massive and effective testing () (Fig. Kucharski, A. J. et al. S1)46. These values are also consistent with the high number of asymptomatic infected subjects estimated for other pandemic events. Infographic: Best cleaning and disinfecting practices during the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, we assume that all those infected not quarantined could continue to transmit the virus until full recovery (21days). Actual data points, as officially reported, are shown using black circles. Each row in the data has a date. Chaos Solitons Fractals 139, 110049 (2020). 24 datasets found for "COVID" COVID-19 Funds Expenditures The COVID-19 expenditures datasets provide an overview of all expenses recorded by state agencies using the COVID-19 incident code. Feb 23; There are 193 more people infected in India today. To that aim, differential Eqs. Public Health England (PHE) said 15,841 daily COVID-19 cases between 25 September and 2 October had been left out of UK totals . Our model suggests that the early adoption of wide spread testing and contact tracing to quickly finding infected individuals, in combination with social distancing, is much more effective than only social distancing or massive testing alone (Fig. Linton, N. M. et al. The attached Excel workbooks include a working query, and each query returns data to an Excel Table . Here, we construct a very simple epidemiological model for the propagation of COVID-19 in urban areas. 50,000 miss self-isolation in UK because of outdated Excel spreadsheet. Ser. Both tools allow you to estimate the potential effectiveness of each of the three strategies, the average number of contacts per case, and the time needed for case interviews and contact tracing follow-up activities. The main purpose of this contribution is to demonstrate that a simple mathematical model, amenable to implementation in an Excel spreadsheet, can accurately predict the evolution of an epidemic event at a local level (i.e., in any major urban area).